3rd November 2014 PRESS RELEASE
EirGrid twisting facts – claims Grid Link Action Group following ESB submission calling for review of Grid25
The Grid Link Action Group has accused EirGrid of twisting the facts following reports that the ESB submission to the Government’s Energy Green Paper has called for a review of the Grid25 energy infrastructure project.
Grid Link Action Group spokesperson, Kieran Connors said today, “Eirgrid drew up their projections for Grid25 in 2008 forecasting significant growth in demand but demand actually fell by about 10%, bottoming out and only now starting to recover. According to the ESB, based on 2008 energy consumption figures, EirGrid assumed growth in demand of 60% up to 2025 and the grid plans have been developed on that basis.”
Mr. Connors explained, “The key point here is that, due to the recession, energy demand fell from 2008 which means you must re-base the EirGrid 2008 figures to take account of this fall in demand and re-adjust the projected growth to 2024.” (see reference below – ESB submission p. 28).
“But EirGrid are now basing their projections based on 2014 figures going forward to 2024 which is still below the actual level of demand in 2008. What the ESB are saying is that, allowing for recovery, we will only be getting back to 2008 levels of demand by 2020. That means that, once you re-adjust for the drop in demand, the overall growth from 2008 to 2024 will be 5%, which is way off the 60% EirGrid projections.
“So the ESB are totally correct in what they are saying.”
Kieran Connors 087 241 1203
Steve Rawson Press 087 235 7551
ESB submission p. 28
During the last recession, system demand in Ireland fell from its 2008 peak by almost 10%. According to EirGrid’s latest forecasts, it is not projected to return to 2008 levels until close to 2020. While this represents an unprecedented downturn in demand, this shift is even more dramatic when compared to the forecasts made in the period before 2008. For example, in 2008 EirGrid were projecting that by 2025 demand in Ireland would increase by 60% over the period 2008-2025. Based on analysis and extrapolation of 2014 forecasts and including the impact of the recession, the latest demand projections by EirGrid would suggest growth of only ~5% during 2008-2024.